Forecasting in Business

Forecasting and predictions in the business world can make or break a company or even an industry. There are several steps that a company can use to help predict their future needs (Amanet, 2019). These steps include looking back at trends, anticipating what is to come next, and directing your own future (Amanet, 2019). These are important steps that the fuel industry could have taken over the last 100 years. There have been many scientists dating back to their early 19th century, with a well-known infamous prediction by Alexander Graham Bell, that spoke of climate change and global warming (Crew, 2017).

Infamous Prediction
Alexander Graham BellThere has been a lot of prediction over the years that have come true. One infamous prediction was from Alexander Graham Bell in 1917 when he predicted global warming (Crew, 2017). Back in the early 1900s, most scientists believe that the earth would cool down due to pollution since the sun Rays will be blocked (Crew, 2017). Alexander thought the opposite and correctly predicted that adding pollution into the atmosphere would cause the greenhouse effect, or as he stated it, the “hot-house” effect (Crew, 2017). Even though some historians will not credit Mr. Bell for being the first to use the term “greenhouse,” there is a consensus that he was ahead of his time (Williams, 2017).

It is worth noting that Mr. Bell was not the first to think about global warming before it was an issue. Back in the 19th century, scientists began speculating how burning coal was affecting the planet (Sakimoto, 2018). One thing the earliest scientists cording correct about with the amount of time it would take for carbon dioxide to build up in the atmosphere (Sakimoto, 2018).  Early predictions showed that it would take almost 3000 years before we needed to be concerned about global warming (Sakimoto, 2018).

There are various forces that come into play when we talk about global warming and the greenhouse effect. One major force in the cultural need to use fossil fuels to power vehicles around the world (Sakimoto, 2018). As a global society, we rely on fossil fuels to power everything from our vehicles, generators, electrical plants, and our homes (Sakimoto, 2018).

Another force that has an impact on global warming is the lack of social awareness and what can be done to correct the issue (Adio-Moses & Aladejana, 2016). A study was conducted in 2016 of people who lived within the industrial areas of Nigeria, which showed there was a lack of awareness for global warming (Adio-Moses & Aladejana, 2016). One idea to improve awareness is to introduce environmental health classes to teach individuals about the causes and dangers of global warming (Adio-Moses & Aladejana, 2016).

In summary, there is enough evidence that global warming and climate change are real. Now in 2019, we have energy-efficient vehicles that are starting to take the place of standard combustion engines. However, if the fuel industry used historical information dating back to the 19th century that showed climate change could potentially be an issue, we may have come up with cleaner fuel solutions sooner. This is a good example of an industry that is not looking at historical information for forecasting business needs. History is a great teacher, and if we do not look back to understand the past, we may end up repeating it.

References

Adio-Moses, R., & Aladejana, J. A. (2016). Assessment of knowledge and awareness of global warming among inhabitants of industrial areas of an urban community in Nigeria. International Journal of Business and Economic Development (IJBED), 4(1).  Retrieved from https://www.ijbed.org

Amanet. (2019). How to Predict the Future and Transform Your Business. Retrieved from https://www.amanet.org/articles/how-to-predict-the-future-and-transform-your-business/

Crew, B. (2017). Alexander Graham Bell’s Prediction About The Future Was Eerily Accurate. Retrieved from https://www.sciencealert.com/alexander-graham-bell-s-prediction-about-the-state-of-the-world-today-is-eerily-accurate

Sakimoto, P. J. (2018). Climate Change and Integral Ecology. The Trumpeter, 34(1), 62-78.

Wade, W. (2012). Scenario Planning. Retrieved from vbk://9781118237410

Williams, D. (2017). Alexander Graham Bell’s predictions about the impact of climate change. Retrieved from https://www.outdoorrevival.com/featured/alexander-graham-bells-predictions-impact-climate-change-possible-solutions.html